New 9th District Poll: Baron’s Lead Shrinks by a Third
Irrational opposition to oil drilling, support for San Francisco liberal social values, votes for higher taxes, votes against troops fighting a war, and an endorsement for the most liberal candidate for President since George McGovern are not Hoosier values.
They’re Baron’s values, but they’re not our values.
They’re the values of Nancy Pelosi, Barack Obama, and of folks in places like Massachusetts and San Francisco, where Luddite lunacy is rampant and common sense is scarce.
(Read more after the leap)
In an election for US House of Representatives in Indiana’s 9th Congressional District today, 07/31/08, incumbent Democrat Baron Hill leads Republican Mike Sodrel by 7 points, 49% to 42%. Libertarian Eric Schansberg today takes 4% of the vote; 5% are undecided.
Comparing the crosstabs of this poll to the SurveyUSA poll taken in the middle of June indicates that much of Sodrel’s gain has come from conservatives (self-identified and church-goers, primarily) returning to the fold.
Sodrel had 70% of conservatives in June. He has 75% of them now.
He led Hill by 2% among church-goers in June. He leads by 18% now.
Moreover, Sodrel’s significant bite out of Hill’s lead comes despite this (July) sample being more liberal (or at least less conservative) than the June sample.
Republican voter identification is 2% lower in this poll than in the prior poll, and there are similar declines in self-identified conservatives.
54% considered themselves regular church-goers in June. Only 50% in July. A similar 4% swing was seen in favor of those that “almost never” attend church. As it is unlikely that the church attendance habits of 9th District voters changed that much in one month, it is likely that this sample is more liberal than the earlier one, and thus more favorable to Baron Hill for obvious reasons.
While these margins are small and within the margin of error, these elements would tend to indicate (particularly when taken together) that the race is perhaps closer than this particular poll might seem to initially indicate.
And this race is getting much tighter.
Perhaps all of that gloating about the race trending to Baron was premature.
Don’t count your ballots before they’re cast.
Jon Costas can tell you all about being a sure thing in a year like this, and he was a Republican.